What a difference a year makes?

The rule of law crushed to earth for 27 years rose up in Ethiopia in 2018.

If someone would have told me in the first week of 2018 that I would be writing in earnest about the rule of law in the first week of 2019, I would have rolled my eyes with disdain.

Very few believed 2018 would be the end of TPLF thug-rule in Ethiopia.

But the writing was on the wall for all to see.

In February 2013, I predicted, “Meles and his worshipers have profoundly troubled the Ethiopian house and they shall inherit the wind!”

By 2015, I was certain the TPLF thug-rule game was over and done.

In March of that year, I wrote:

I believe the T-TPLF leaders know with absolute certainty that they are sitting on a powder keg.  As I have written previously, the T-TPLF has built its castles in the sand. The only question is whether those castles will be swept up by a tidal wave of deep public discontent or blown away by the tornadic wind of the people’s fury. In either case, the T-TPLF will be vacuumed and deposited in the dustbin of history.

In December 2015, I wrote a commentary entitled, The “End of the Story” for the T-TPLF in Ethiopia.

The TPLF laughed at me and said, “Al Mariam is ignorant of the underlying factors of TPLF’s staying power and predicts state collapse on every small and big occasion.”

In 2018, a tidal wave of civil disobedience and resistance led by Ethiopia’s Cheetahs (young people) finally put TPLF thug-rule in the trash bin of history.

Who’s laughing now, TPLF?

Today, a handful of thugtators are holed up in self-imposed garrison prisons hoping to evade the long arm of the law.

They pipe dream of the day they can return to power as they try to wreak havoc throughout the country.

They will return to power when hell freezes over and the Devil goes ice skating.

But the transition from thug-rule to the rule of law has always been a critical concern for me. I articulated that concern in my April 2012 commentary.

Now, we must move from concern to action and transform 27-years of thug-rule into civilized rule of law.

As I reflect on 2018 and all of the changes that have taken place, I recall the opening words of Charles Dickens in A Tale of Two Cities. “It was the best of times, it was the worst of times, it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to heaven, we were all going direct the other way…”

There were two Ethiopias in 2018.

In the first quarter of 2018, we saw the worst of times in Ethiopia.

We were sweltering under the rule of a small group of predatory thugs and everyone was convinced Ethiopia was going to hell (civil war) in hand basket.

In the second half of 2018, we began to see the first sunlight of the best of times in Ethiopia and the final sunset on thug-rule.

We learned what it means to live under the rule of law.

We even saw the motley crew of senile old fools  invited to to enter the country with dignity only to find these boneheads talking trash about how they can take over power through terrorism.

These buffoons declared, “Damn the rule of law. We will take power by the rule of AK47s.”

But no ignorant old fools, unreformed terrorists and young empty barrels who think they can “capture power in 24 hours” will be able to turn the tide of rule of law, democracy and human rights in Ethiopia.

But they have the right to pipe dream, indulge in delusions of grandeur.

For me, 2019 shall be the “Year of the Rule of Law in Ethiopia” as 2018 was the “Year of Ethiopiawinet”.

On the newly established website of the Office of the Prime Minster of Ethiopia, the  rule of law is announced as Job #1.

Over the past nine months, H.E. Prime Minster Dr. Abiy Ahmed has demonstrated, to the wonderment of the world, his unwavering commitment to the rule of law in words and in action.

He has emptied the country’s prisons of all political prisoners who had been held illegally for years.

For the first time since 2004, there are NO journalists in prison in Ethiopia.

Practically every day, in one form or another, PM Abiy has been preaching the gospel of the rule of law in Ethiopia.

Under PM Abiy’s leadership, the “Government of Ethiopia is undertaking a comprehensive reform program with a strong commitment to uphold rule of law and build a robust democratic system.”

The notorious anti-terrorism and civil society proclamations are currently under complete revision “ to ensure respect for fundamental rights, rule of law and democracy.”

I join PM Abiy in his efforts to institutionalize the rule of law in Ethiopia, and call on all Ethiopians to join in this monumental effort by engaging in informed exchange of views, ideas and opinions.

Many Ethiopians have asked me, “What is the rule of law? What does it mean?”

I ask myself if I should start by expounding on Corpus Juris Civilis, “without doubt the most important and influential collection of secular legal materials that the world has ever known”?

Perhaps the Magna Carta Libertatum? The U.S. Constitution? The Universal Declaration of Human Rights?

Blackstone’s Commentaries?

Are these “too Western” for Ethiopians?

How about the Kibra Negest?

Perhaps the “living customary laws” of Africa?

None of them will do.

People want simple, straightforward answers.

To those who ask, “What does rule of law mean in Ethiopia?”, I ask them to think about their lives under thug-rule over the past 27 years.

What is thug-rule?

When an innocent citizen is jailed, tortured and left to rot because that citizen proclaimed his/her Ethiopiawinet, that is thug-rule.

When a citizen is denied the equal protection of the laws because of his ethnic affiliation, that is thug rule.

When a citizen is denied job, educational and business opportunities because s/he does not have the right ethnic credentials, that is thug-rule.

When a nation’s treasury is looted for the benefit of the few in power and their cronies, that is thug-rule.

When a nation of proud people who have defended their freedom for thousands of years are subjected to a life of humiliation, subjugation and subordination under the rule of a Mafia-style gang of bush thugs, that is thug rule.

By the way, the English word “thug” comes from the Hindi word “thag” which means “con man”.

In India “Thugees”, well-organized criminal gangs, robbed and murdered unsuspecting travelers over a century ago.

In 1991, a small cabal of arrogant and ignorant thugees came out of the bush and imposed the “rule of the bush” (law of the jungle) on Ethiopia and began a campaign of killing, looting and plundering.

That is why I coined a new English word to describe the TPLF as a “thugtatorship”.

To those Ethiopians who ask me, “What is the rule of law?”, I simply tell them to compare their lives over the past nine months to the previous 27 years of tears.

That’s it!

Why I am a stickler for the rule of law…

Philosophers and scholars have argued for millennia whether some “people are born evil”.

Are those who commit atrocities, torture innocents, inflict unspeakable suffering and  horror on their fellow human beings and bankrupt the public treasury “born evil”?

Is there a mutant “evil gene” that turns ordinary humans into conscienceless monsters?

I don’t know, but I believe I was born with the “rule of law gene”.

The expression of that gene in me compels me to stand up for the underdog, always.

In my 2014 New Year’s Resolution, I made a full confession:

It is part of my core belief that I must care for the welfare of others less fortunate than myself. That is the major reason I decided to become a lawyer after I had achieved my principal academic objective. I am always for the underdog. It could be the homeless veteran at a freeway exit asking for spare change or the throngs of young people I have never met in Ethiopia who are unjustly imprisoned merely because they spoke their minds or expressed their opinions in a publication. I guess I was born that way. That is why I never get discouraged even if others believe my efforts are ultimately in vain.

In 2016, I wondered out loud if there is something wrong with me because I am so committed to the rule of law and protecting the underdog, the weak, the defenseless, the helpless, the powerless.

Shakespeare wrote in the Twelfth Night, ‘Some are born great, some achieve greatness, and some have greatness thrust upon them.’ I wonder if Shakespeare considered whether some people are also born doomed to always defend the  underdogs, condemned to bark and yap truth to the Uber-dogs.

Now, I am too old to change and learn new tricks.

I still root for the underdog. Could it be because I can relate to them on a visceral level?

The difference between me and those who do not believe in the rule of law can be expressed simply as follows.

They believe in the principle, “Might makes right.”

I believe in the principle, “Right makes might,” just like Abraham Lincoln expressed it in his Cooper Union Address in 1860 defending the role of the federal government in eliminating slavery. “LET US HAVE FAITH THAT RIGHT MAKES MIGHT, AND IN THAT FAITH, LET US, TO THE END, DARE TO DO OUR DUTY AS WE UNDERSTAND IT.”

For the last 13 years, I have dared to do my duty for Ethiopia as I understand it; and I shall stand with and by Abiy Ahmed, without flinching or wavering, as he toils day and night to usher in and institutionalize the rule of law in Ethiopia. 

The aim of the series on the rule of law

The aim of the planned series of commentaries is to share my reflections on the rule of law and Ethiopia’s democratic transition.

Of course, I have previously written extensively on the rule of law in Ethiopia and the United States.

In 2019, I aim to energetically promote and defend the principle of rule of law in Ethiopia in a variety of ways.

Why?

First, I consider myself a public intellectual in the mold of  Edward Said: “The intellectual is an individual endowed with a faculty for representing, embodying, articulating a message, a view, an attitude, philosophy or opinion to, as well as for, a public, in public.”

Second, as a practitioner and teacher of American constitutional law and someone who has taken the time to study Ethiopian constitutional, criminal and civil laws  over one-half century, I believe I can offer some informed views and opinions on Ethiopia’s constitutional future.

Third, I believe fresh and creative ideas on Ethiopia’s transition from the rule of a small group of thugs to the rule of law is very much needed.

Fourth, I have a moral obligation to respond to PM Abiy’s call to Diaspora Ethiopians to be fully involved in the making of the New Ethiopia.

In furtherance of the Ethiopian public interest, I plan to provide throughout the year public education on the “rule of law” using a variety of media.

I doing so, I aim to accomplish a number of objectives: 1) provide a broader understanding of the subject to the Ethiopian public, 2) challenge prevailing conceptions of  “Ethiopian constitutionalism” (an exercise in futility given the indisputable fact that Ethiopia’s “constitution” has been trashed by the very people who wrote it,  3) present alternative constitutional arguments and designs to replace the current “constitution” written by and for a small group of power hungry thugs and criminals against humanity,  and 4) provoke intellectual debate and promote cross-fertilization of constitutional ideas .

I hope 2019 will be different and there will be a great many learned men and women who will join the debate and discussion on the rule of law in Ethiopia.

I hope that is not a pipe dream on my part.

Since June 2010, I have been asking, “Where have the Ethiopian intellectuals gone?”

I still don’t know because I don’t see many of them engaging the issues of the day. They seem to be watching on the sidelines as stunned spectators.

If they go AWOL as they have in the past, it does not matter to me.

I learned long ago that “it is easy to stand with the crowd. It takes courage to stand alone.”

It is better to stand alone that to stand with people without backbone, integrity, courage, audacity, endurance, tenacity, grit, strength of character and an indomitable will.

As we begin a brand-new chapter – better yet, as we begin to write a new book about the New Ethiopia under the rule of law, we need Ethiopians with the courage of their convictions to stand up and be counted.

Stand up and be counted on the side of the rule of law.

In launching my series on the rule of law, I hope to attract a core group of open-minded, informed, dispassionate, courageous Ethiopians with unwavering  dedication to the institutionalization of the rule of law in Ethiopia.

I am sure there will be those who will laugh at me, “Here he goes again. Dreaming the impossible.”

The fact of the matter is that I have never believed in dreaming the possible, only the impossible.

When they said it is impossible to end thug-rule in Ethiopia without the power of the sword, I declared in 2006, we shall become victorious by the power of the word.

It took 13 long years for me, but I am blessed to see the victory of the word over the sword in Ethiopia.

Abiy Ahmed won the hearts and minds of the Ethiopian people with the power of his words, without once raising the sword.

That is what the rule of law is all about.

The power of the word supreme over the power of the sword.

As Dr. King said, “That old law about ‘an eye for an eye’ leaves everybody blind.

If Ethiopians choose the sword over the word, we will have a nation of blind people.

If we do not learn from our history of the past several decades, we shall be doomed to repeat it.

We must open our eyes and look at reach other through the lens of the rule of law.

When we have just and fair laws, there will be no bloodshed, no need for revenge, retribution and reprisals, no collective punishment and no guilt by association.

Only redress for wrongs under the rule of law.

With the rule of law ascendant, I know Ethiopia’s best days are just around the corner.

I made that announcement in December 2013 when I reassured Ethiopia’s youth to “be optimistic and determined in creating their Beloved Ethiopian Community because Ethiopia’s best days are yet to come.”

“I’d give the Devil benefit of law…”

I have often been criticized for defending the rights of those with whom I not only disagree but despise.

When I defended Meles Zenawi’s right to speak at Columbia University in September 2010, I was roundly criticized.

They said, “How could you defend the ‘monster’ who had denied millions of Ethiopians the right to speak?” Some even called me a “sellout”.

I insisted I was not defending a “monster” but the universal principle of free expression.

My defense was simple, “If we don’t believe in freedom of expression for people we despise, we don’t believe in it at all.”

My position is no different now.

Today, I defend the rights of those individuals who are currently in custody on a variety of human rights and corruption charges.

Many think these suspects are the “devil incarnate”. I have even been urged to write condemnatory commentaries and whip up negative public sentiments against them.

I will never do that.

To those who wish to criticize me for defending “the devil incarnates” and not speaking publicly against them, I will them what I told those who criticized me when I defended Meles Zenawi’s right to freely express himself.

If you don’t believe in a fair trial – rule of law — for those you despise, then you do not believe in fair trial at all.

As far as I am concerned, those in custody today are presumed innocent until proven guilty.

A fair trial is the litmus test for any conception of the rule of law.

Someone more eloquent than I has said it all.

“I’d give the devil the benefit of law…”

I invite you to watch this 3-minute dramatic video of a historical figure I admire and try to emulate speaking on the rule of law.

Click on this link:  https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WMqReTJkjjg

TO BE CONTINUED…

ETHIOPIAWINET AND THE RULE OF LAW FOREVER.

 

 

Author’s Note: Birtukan Mideksa, former Ethiopian high court judge, political prisoner and first female political party leader in Ethiopian history, returned home a couple of weeks ago following an invitation by H.E. Prime Minister Dr. Abiy Ahmed. Last week, she was confirmed by the House of People’s Representatives to chair the Ethiopian National Board of Elections.

Birtukan was the singular object of ruthless persecution and prosecution by the late Meles Zenawi, leader of the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front, a gang of bush thugs that ruled Ethiopia with an iron fist and steel-soled boots for 27 years. It has been said, “The arc of the universe is long but it bends towards justice.” Birtukan stood for justice and was imprisoned for defending the rule of law. Today, she lives her dream in what she yearningly called years ago, “The Future Country of Ethiopia”.

CONGRATULATIONS, BIRTUKAN INVICTUS!

Birtukan Mideksa (R) taking oath of office w/ President of Supreme Court Meaza Ashenafi

I had a dream about the Future Country of Ethiopia

When I celebrated Thanksgiving with my family last week, I told them during the invocation blessings that I must be the most thankful person on the planet.

“Weeping may last through the night, but joy comes with the morning.”

My weeping began in 2005 when Meles Zenawi, the late leader of the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front, ordered the massacre of hundreds of unarmed demonstrators following the parliamentary election that year.

I remember the victims of the Meles Massacres every November.

But joy came to me 13 years later on April 2, 2018.

Over the past 7 months, my dreams and wishes, along with those of 100 million other Ethiopians came, to  pass, one after the other.

For 13 years, I had a dream that one day all political prisoners in Ethiopia would be released.

In July 2015 when President Barack Obama traveled to Ethiopia, I begged him to tell the pharaohs of the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front to let my people go.

Paraphrasing the old Negro spiritual, I asked Obama: “Go down Moses way down in Ethiopia land/Tell all Pharaohs to let My people go/Oppressed so hard they could not stand/Let My people go…

Obama stood up shoulder-to-shoulder with the pharaohs of the Tigrean Peoples Liberation Front and told the world “Ethiopia has a democratic government”.

Exactly three years later, our modern day Moses Abiy Ahmed came out of nowhere and let them all go. Free. Free at last.

Abiy Ahmed ended our 27-year captivity by the Tigrean Peoples Liberation Front.

Yes, we know right at this moment they are hatching plots, conspiring, colluding and cooking up diabolical schemes to spread death and destruction throughout the country from their citadel in Mekele.

But it will amount to nothing more than bellyaching, teeth-gnashing and finger-wagging.

I shall prophesy,  “Their sword shall enter into their own heart. Their bows shall be broken.”

In 2018,  Abiy Ahmed became, in the words of Dr. Martin Luther King, Jr.,  a “great beacon light of hope to millions of Ethiopians who had been seared in the flames of withering injustice under the bloodthirsty rule of the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front. Abiy Ahmed came as a joyous daybreak to end the long night of captivity for 100 million Ethiopians”.

For 13 years, I had a dream that arbitrary arrests, detentions, torture and politically-motivated prosecutions under the so-called anti-terrorism law in Ethiopia will end. Abiy Ahmed ended them.

For 13 years, I had a dream that one day there will be freedom of expression, freedom of press, freedom of religion and freedom of peaceful assembly. Abiy Ahmed made it happen.

For 13 years, I had a dream that the rule of law will replace the rule of thugs in Ethiopia. Abiy Ahmed today teaches, preaches and practices the rule of law today.

For 13 years, I had a dream that Ethiopians and Eritreans will heed the wisdom of Dr. King. “We must learn to live together as brothers or perish together as fools.”

Today, the people of Ethiopia and Eritrea are at peace. I was a witness to history in Bure and Zalambessa when the borders were reopened for the first time in 20 years on September 11, 2018.

For 13 years, I had a dream Ethiopia’s destiny will be in the hands of its young people. Today, it is with Abiy Ahmed at the helm and his young gender-balanced cabinet.

For 13 years, I had a dream that Diaspora Ethiopians will no longer be demonized and ostracized by those who cling to power by force of arms. Abiy Ahmed travelled the world over embrace us in the Diaspora, urged us to take pride in our Ethiopiawinet. With open arms, he invited us, “Come on home!”

I had a dream that one day I will stand up in a free Ethiopia and proclaim my pride in my Ethiopiawinet. In September 2018, I realized that dream after 48 long years of yearning and waiting.

Damn the Derg! Damn the TPLF!

I remember the dark days when I wished I was Ghanaian, deeply revolted and outraged  by the crimes against humanity and corruption of the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front.

For 13 years, I had a dream that one day Ethiopia’s political opposition could freely organize and compete in free and fair elections.

Today, Abiy Ahmed has appointed Birtukan Mideksa as chair of the National Election Board.

As we speak, Abiy Ahmed is sitting down with opposition leaders and mapping out plans for a free and fair election in 2020 election.

I could go on and on…

But the fact of the matter is that the future country of Ethiopia Birtukan Mideksa talked about so much is finally here!

Thank God almighty, the 27-year nightmare of captivity in the bloody and corrupt hands of the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front is over.

Hear ye! Hear ye! The Future Country of Ethiopia is here!

Birtukan Mideksa, the first female political party leader in Ethiopia, is my personal heroine.

I tried to be Birtukan’s voice when the late Meles Zenawi declared a ruthless personal vendetta against her and jailed her.

Meles Zenawi used Birtukan as his “whipping girl”.

He even threatened opposition leaders. “We will crush them with our full force; they will all rot like Birtukan in jail forever.”

Meles Zenawi once mocked Birtukan as a silly chicken who ultimately did herself in because she did not know the limits of her modest abilities and his overwhelming and boundless might.

Meles Zenawi was so evil, when he was asked about Birtukan’s health in prison by the international press in 2010, he said she “is in perfect health” but was getting fat because she does not exercise. He really said that!

In “Q’ale” (My Testimony), a public statement she released two days before Zenawi imprisoned her on December 29, 2009, Birtukan boldly declared, “Lawlessness and arrogance are things that I will never get used to, nor will cooperate with.”

Birtukan is a strong-willed and determined woman. She is a woman of principle. She will never sell her soul for a few pieces of silver.

Meles Zenawi was a weak man, a bully and a coward, according to those who knew him well.

One way Meles Zenawi could prove his machismo was by jailing a strong woman. The other is to order the massacre of innocent citizens.

Meles could jail Birtukan’s body, but never her spirit, her determination, her true Ethiopiawinet.

That is why I wrote “Birtukan Invictus!” (Birtukan Aybegere!) in December 2009.

Birtukan Mideksa condemned to life in prison by a vengeful dictator, but unconquered.
Birtukan thrown into the dungeon of wrath and tears, but defiant.
Birtukan beaten, bludgeoned and bloodied, but unbowed.
Birtukan mocked, ridiculed and disrespected, but gracious.
Birtukan denounced, vilified, strong-armed and manhandled, but unafraid.
Ethiopia under the crushing boots of soldiers of fortune.
Birtukan, Invictus!
Ethiopia, Invictus!

I tried to imagine what life was like for Birtukan in Meles’ prison held in solitary confinement in a dark room for months.

I wrote,  fear, anxiety and despair were her only companions. Heartache knocked constantly on the door to her dark room needling her: “Did you do the right thing leaving three year-old Hal’le to the care of your aging mother?”

Self-doubt kept her awake in that dark room where time stood still asking her the same question over and over: “Is it worth all this suffering? Give up!”

But a voice in her conscience would echo thunderously, “Like hell you’re going to give up, Birtukan. Fight on. Keep on fighting. ‘Never give in — never, never, never, never, in nothing great or small, large or petty, never give in except to convictions of honour and good sense. Never yield to force; never yield to the apparently overwhelming might of the enemy.’

In the end Birtukan signed Meles Zenawi’s scrap of paper called a pardon petition making exception to convictions of honor and good sense. We expected nothing less from such a great young woman.”

In November 2018, Birtukan Mideksa is heading the very institution that Meles Zenawi and his TPLF thugs prostituted to cling to power claiming to win 100 percent of the seats in parliament.

Birtukan stood up and was chained down because she valued the rule of law, justice and fairness above her own liberty.

The windbag nabobs of negativism were wagging their venomous forked tongues challenging Birtuka’s fitness for the job given the fact she had lived in America for so long.

As they point and wag their fingers at Birtukan, they should be aware three fingers are pointing at them. People who live in glass houses should not throw stones!

I salute Birtukan Mideksa, our Ethiopian woman for all seasons.

One of my few leftover dreams is that Ethiopia will one day be flooded with strong, principled and independent judges like Birtukan so that “justice rolls on like a river and righteousness like a never-failing stream” in Ethiopia.

I have translated parts of Birtukan’s speech from February 2009.

She speaks of personal suffering, cruelty, the rule of law, the future country of Ethiopia and other things. (Of course, much is lost in translation, but I hope my effort here will offer a window into the soul, heart and mind of a woman I admire greatly as an Ethiopian heroine.)

Birtukan Mideksa’s speech and poem (author’s translation from Amharic), February 2009

“I am not going to say much that is new to you today.

But everything we could talk about excepted —about being imprisoned and released from prison, arguing about [politics], about being elected and perhaps even about being killed, everything – I want to briefly talk about the essence of our central focus which is our vision (for the future of Ethiopia).

My honored and beloved compatriots. History has made a rendezvous for us at a decisive juncture in the road. The work that awaits us demands our patience, wisdom and sacrifice. In perspective, since our destination is freedom, unity and prosperity, and since what we need for our journey are spiritual strength and fortitude, and though our journey will involve hills, valleys and winding roads, it will be short.

Let me just take you to Tikemt 22, 1998 [Ethiopian Calendar].

It was in a room that is 4 meters by 2 meters, a room covered in darkness all day, that I and [parliamentary] representative W/o Nigist Gebrehiwot were imprisoned.

It was a luxury for us to look at the sky, to breath fresh clean air or walk freely as much as we can.

But a scowling policeman  would order me to get up and to sit down. Thought that was uncomfortable, it was not difficult because I expected it.

It was during this time off deep reflection that I wrote this poem. Let me read it to you today.

Expend all of your energy striking me,
Ruthless you are, be ruthless against me.
Then visit upon mean new and newer forms of your cruelty,
Get your pleasure from my suffering.

Reveal all your wild (animalistic) nature,
(I live) for my dream, for my freedom,
If need be, I am ready to die today
I was imprisoned here, I [was forced] to come here.

[My suffering] is not my burden, it is my ornament,
Here’s my chest, for you cheap bullets,
Here it is for your wild animal nature,
Destroy it, disable it, tighten it in a knot.

It is not my grief, it is my principle.
But let me raise my head and tell you,
You have separated me from human company,
Speed it up, speed up, hurry up.

And finish up everything you want to do today,
Because tomorrow is not yours,
It’s out of your hands, it’s long gone,
It’s my child, the one I bore.

The one I brought to life through labor pains,
The shining star, the brilliant one,
Hale [Birtukan’s daughter] the feisty one,
Thanks to you, her world is empty.

You have sucked it all up,
Your bullet and our longing to be together,
Brought this beauty, the beautiful Ethiopia,
At the time it gave me spiritual strength.

Thoughts of  tomorrow’s beautiful Ethiopia,
The inevitable occurrence that is revealed was part of my dream,
Is this our future country of Ethiopia for whom we yearn,
To those who ask about her ultimate fate.

I say, ‘Before all things, individual liberty and human rights must be protected.’
Ethiopia will be the country where the basic dignity of a human being will be redefined,
Where the freedom of the individual is respected and citizenship rights of all are respected,
But do not worry.

In all parts of our Ethiopia,
In the countryside, in the cities, for the rich and for the poor,
Freedom of blossom throughout the land,
A statue of liberty will stand for her (Ethiopia).

Ethiopia will be a country where real justice shall prevail [where justice rolls like a might stream],
When that happens, there will be judges who shall serve free [of political interference],
Then no one will regard judges as heroes,
[Fair administration of justice] would be responsibility of their citizenship and their professional obligation shall be manifest to all.

And this will be the standard to measure the capacity of every citizen,
The Armed Forces will not support dictators and oppressive rule,
They will be an instrument for preserving the territorial integrity of the nation and integrity of the Constitution,
The police will not arrest citizens without the judicial warrant but will work under the umbrella of law and professionalism.

Lawmakers will do their job without thinking about their personal gain,
They will do their job in consideration of the fate of their grandchildren,
[The parliament] will be a place where just laws are drafted,
We will be owners of such institutions.

How about her (Ethiopia’s) unity?
For this country, her diversity will be her beauty and not an obstacle to her unity,
Why? [Ethiopia will be a land where] their citizenship right is to be respected,
[Ethiopia will be a land] where the people change their government by the ballot and not the bullet.

Where votes are counted properly [and not stolen],
[Citizens] shall be owners of such a process,
Other than this, there’s nothing that justifies disunity,
There will be no problem or dispute that cannot be solved with justice.

My beloved people,
I know this vision is also your vision, our collective vision,
To translate this dream into action requires are collective participation,
I am strong in spirit and vision.

How about you?
If you have the strength, we can walk united, with tolerance of each other in our diversity,
We can work for the betterment of our people and for their freedom and justice,
Let’s seize the moment with our knowledge and our time.

Today is ours,
For those coming tomorrow, we have an obligation and a command from conscience to leave a legacy of an ordered society,
If all of us do our share, the time is near for us to realize our vision today than at any other time before,
Through tolerance, and listening to each other, rule of law, determination and unity.

If our lives today do not represent anything meaningful to the coming generation,
The result will not be history but a debt,
My call to you is one and only one:
Let’s all rise up and build tomorrow’s Ethiopia [today]!

Behold the Future Country of Ethiopia is upon us today!

Postscript:

I believe the future of the “future country of Ethiopia” will be decided in a battle between the “future makers” and “future takers”.

We are witnessing the handiwork of the TPLF future takers today. They have taken everything in the present — the rights of the people, their dignity, their daily bread, their land, their hopes and their dreams, their wealth — so that there will be no future.

They calculate the future to be a continuation of the past, and they will do everything in their power to perpetuate the past into the future.

Future takers worship at the altar of greed and corruption; and for them fairness, decency, generosity and morality are anathema.

The battle between the future makers and future takers will be waged and decided in the hearts and minds of the people. The future takers will wage a war of tears and fears.

The future makers will fight back with hope, faith, charity and love.

The future makers are today making history.

The future takers have been cast in the trash bin of history.

I have been saying so for 13 years.

Ethiopia’s best days are yet to come!

“Brigadier General” Kinfe Dagnew

 

In the end, they always fall…

I don’t know how many times I have quoted Gandhi over the past 13 years to prophesy the end of the rule of the Tigrean People’s Liberation Front (TPLF). “All through history, there have been tyrants and murderers, and for a time, they seem invincible. But in the end, they always fall. Always.”

The first time I warned the TPLF of their impending doom was in 2007.

The TPLF leaders and supporters laughed at me. They boasted they will rule for 100 years!

In my February 2011 blog on the Huffington Post, I coined a new word to describe the regime of the TPLF as a “thugtatorship”, a “thugocracy” and its leaders a gang of “thugtators”.

I argued if democracy is government of the people, by the people and for the people, a thugocracy is a government of thieves, for thieves, by thieves. Simply stated, a thugtatorship is rule by a gang of thieves and robbers (thugs) in designer suits, and military uniforms as we have come to find out.

Kinfe Dagnew “Godfather of METEC”

I declared, “Ethiopia is a thugocracy privately managed and operated for the exclusive benefit of bloodthirsty thugtators.”

Since I wrote that blog, I have always used the phrase, “the thugtatorship of the Tigrean Peoples Liberation Front”.

Last week, TPLF thugs and others were being rounded up and lassoed like wild horses in California to be brought to the bar of justice.

In January 2012, I warned the TPLF thugs to beware and change their evil ways. “Justice will also arrive like a slow, chugging and delayed train for those who have committed crimes against humanity and war crimes in Ethiopia.”

In November 2018, the long-delayed Justice Train finally arrived in Ethiopia.

How the mighty TPLF leaders and cronies have fallen!

I have always known the TPLF was a Beast With Feet of Clay.

When gazed upon, the T-TPLF appears awesome, formidable and infinitely powerful. It has guns, tanks, rockets, planes and bombs. Though the T-TPLF has legs of iron, its feet are made of clay.

We are witnessing today the TPLF’s feet dissolve into muck.

I lectured the TPLF with Churchillian contempt. “You see these dictators on their pedestals, surrounded by the bayonets of their soldiers and the truncheons of their police … yet in their hearts there is unspoken fear. They are afraid of words and thoughts: words spoken abroad, thoughts stirring at home — all the more powerful because forbidden — terrify them. A little mouse of thought appears in the room, and even the mightiest potentates are thrown into panic.

In February 2016, I told the TPLF, “mass civil disobedience and peaceful resistance can defeat the Beast.”

In November 2018, the TPLF is DEFEATED!

I know our Prime Minister H.E. Dr. Abiy Ahmed does not believe in “victors” and “vanquished”, “winners” and “losers”.

I believe he says that because he does not believe Ethiopia can be a house divided between winners and losers and victors and the vanquished.

PM Abiy does not believe in an Ethiopia that is half winners and half losers.

He believes Ethiopian can be a nation of winners OR a nation of losers, but not both.

I believe Ethiopia is a Land of Winners.

So, when I say the TPLF is defeated, I mean kleptocracy (government of thieves) is defeated. Thugtatorship is defeated. Dictatorship of command post regime is defeated. Ethnic apartheid is defeated.

The victor is none other than the RULE OF LAW.

PM Abiy has defended the rule of law on numerous occasions.

In May 2018, PM Abiy said:

The law is not something those of us with power and guns use to force our will on others. The law is something to be used to judge those who administer as well as those who are administered. It applies equally to the weak and powerful and both the powerful and the weak should equally believe in the [fairness] of the law. That is the way it should be. All are to be treated equally before the law.

If the powerful are using the law to buy their way, it will not work. Citizens should have confidence in the fairness of the law to the point that when they do wrong and commit an offense, they can say, ‘I have done an offense and must be held accountable’. The  law must be something that will hold us all equally accountable. I am confident the kilil administrators will do what is necessary to ensure this… No one can use his power to abuse others. It is best to show that the law is both for the weak and the strong. The kilil governments must demonstrate [in action] the supremacy of the rule of law.

PM Abiy has often criticized abuse of power and disregard for the rule of law by those sworn to uphold the law. He says it is a national problem.

PM Abiy has repeatedly underscored the need to institutionalize the rule of law through education and enhanced professional training for those in law enforcement. He has promoted the establishment of a new culture of respect for the rule of law in his speeches and public statements as a precondition for Ethiopia’s successful transition to democratic rule.

My views on the rule of law are identical to PM Abiy’s.

I have long argued that the rule of law will take deep root in Ethiopia when those in government learn always to fear their citizens and citizens acquire the courage never to fear their government.

When I was a kid, we used to sing a folk song: “Hang down your head, Tom Dooley/Hang down your head and cry…”

Hang down your head Yared Zerihun…

I would sing that same song now, “Hang down your head, Yared Zerihun… Hang down your head in shame. Poor boy, you’re going to jail…”

Underboss Yared Zerihun

Last week, METEC Boss Kinfe Dagnew was captured as he tried to make a run for the border with suitcase in hand. Kinfe was the head of a Mafiosi-type military-run industrial conglomerate called Metal and Engineering Corporation (METEC).

Kinfe and his cohorts are accused of embezzling and misappropriating 24 billion Ethiopian birr ($863 million) from a government  contract. “Only 266 million birrs was found in the METEC bank account. The rest of the money had vanished.”

Last week, Kinfe was talking trash and apparently taking a jab at PM Abiy.  “Anyone who says METEC is a failed business is himself a failure.”

Today, Kinfe is begging to have the court appoint a lawyer for him because he is too poor to pay for one.

What a villainous joker!

I have been writing about TPLF corruption for years.

In 2013, I issued a multipart series on TPLF corruption beginning with my commentary entitled, the TPLF Corruption Game.

In my June 2013 commentary “Ethiopian Telecom Corporation or Tele-corruporation?”, I coined a new word to describe TPLF leaders and cronies as “corruptoids” (vampires who suck on the country’s economic blood).

On November 12, 2018, Ethiopia’s Attorney General Berhanu Tsegaye announced some 63 intelligence officials, military personnel and businesspeople are in custody on allegations of rights violations and corruption.

AG Berhanu stated that the accused suspects committed a variety of crimes against humanity including use of electric shock on detainees, severe beatings by suspending victims, pulling the private parts of victims with pincers, hanging victims on trees and beating them, keeping detainees in dark dungeons for a prolonged period, stuffing ball point pens in victims’ noses, forcing victims to walk in the forest naked, gang rape of women and sodomy on men.

Amnesty International stated, “Many of these officials were at the helm of government agencies infamous for perpetrating gross human rights violations, such as torture and the arbitrary detention of people including in secret facilities.”

The rule of law shall prevail: The accused will get a fair trial

In 2013, when the TPLF accused some of its own members of corruption, I defended the right of fair trial of those accused.

I declared, “If we don’t believe in a fair trial for those we despise as corrupt, then we do not believe in fair trial at all.

I restate what I wrote in May 2013 today in November 2018 with respect to the current suspects:

I believe in fairness and justice. I do not believe in revenge or retribution. I take no position on the factual guilt or innocence of those accused of “corruption”. If they did the crime, they have to do the time. However, I believe they have a constitutional right to be presumed innocent until proven guilty in a fair trial. In other words, I make no exceptions or compromises when it comes to taking a position in defending the principle and practice of due process of law and respect for fundamental human rights. Those accused of “corruption” now (and those who will certainly face accusations of crimes against humanity and other crimes in the future) are entitled to full due process of law, which includes not only the  presumption of innocence and the right against self-incrimination but also the rights to counsel, adequate notice of charges, an impartial and neutral fact-finder, speedy trial and adjudication by the standard of beyond a reasonable doubt.

I have no doubts the accused will have a public trial open to all and will be guaranteed the opportunity to present a full defense.

The court will render a judgment according to the law of the land and international standards of justice.

My ultimate wish is for the accused suspects to get a fair trial they denied so many innocent Ethiopians.

I want the world to witness that Ethiopians believe in the rule of law even for those who committed heinous crimes.

As I explained in my November 2017 commentary, I believe in “Ethiopian exceptionalism”.

By this phrase, I simply aim to convey the idea that Ethiopia has certain unique and positive qualities that make it different (but in no way better or superior to any others) from other nations in the world.

Ethiopians have the rule of law imprinted on their genes.

In 2012, I expounded on my belief about the rule of law in Ethiopia:

The rule of law in Ethiopia, I believe, is an ancient ideal. Ordinary Ethiopians used to invoke the “divine power of the law” (ye heg amlak) against wrong-doers and abusers of power. That was when they could see the faint and distant image of justice painted on a canvas of autocratic rule. But it must also be pointed out that the Ethiopian civic culture has tolerated an insidious exception to the rule of law which persists to the present day. An old Ethiopia adage says, “One cannot plough (farm) the sky nor hold a king to account in court” (semai aye-tares, negus aye-keses). “Negus” Zenawi is the personification of that adage today. In the transition from dictatorship to democracy, Ethiopians will have an opportunity to choose between alternative conceptions of the rule of law.

My view is that rule of law is a quintessential principle of good democratic governance. It is a vital part of statecraft (the art of leading a country). It is a fundamental element in nation-building, state-building, peace-building, democracy-building, justice-building and truth and reconciliation. I do not equate the rule of law with democracy, but I believe it makes genuine multiparty democracy possible through institutional arrangements for conducting clean, free and fair elections. I do not think the rule of law by itself guarantees justice, but it will serve to facilitate the delivery of justice to citizens through an independent and transparent judicial process. It will not guarantee equality, human rights and the rest of it, but without the rule of law there can be no equality or human dignity. I believe respect for human rights is the single important manifestation of the prevalence of the rule of law in any society and the most persuasive evidence of good governance.

Judgment Day has arrived

The Good Book says, “For with what judgment ye judge, ye shall be judged: and with what measure ye mete, it shall be measured to you again.” It also says, “Whatsoever a man soweth, that shall he also reap” and warns of “visiting the iniquity of the fathers on the children, to the third and the fourth generation.”

Scripture also teaches that “He that troubleth his own house shall inherit the wind: and the fool shall be servant to the wise of heart.”

In 2013, I warned, “Meles and his worshippers have profoundly troubled the Ethiopian house and they shall inherit the wind!”

We are blessed to have a leader who is “wise of heart”.

Behold one and all the unfolding of prophesy in Ethiopia today!

PLEASE SUPPORT THE ETHIOPIAN DIASPORA TRUST FUND AT ethiopiatrustfund.org

Abiy Ahmed, November 2017. Wikicommons/Odaw. Some rights reserved.

Abiy Ahmed has already gone down in history by breaking – in just a few weeks – almost every rule in the age-old Ethiopian way of governing. His liberal reforms and diplomatic openings fulfilled the pressing demands of the vast majority of Ethiopians, and thus brought to a halt the infernal spiral into which the country was headed. But Abiy Ahmed made three mammoth strategic errors.

First, he believed that – or at least acted as if – he could carry out his agenda by relying only on his charisma, his immense popularity and a handful of stalwarts, a kind of “team Abiy”. In short, he thought he could de-institutionalize his rule.Ably Ahmed… thought he could de-institutionalize his rule.

There were even widespread rumours that he envisaged establishing a presidential regime, a modern way to fit into the mould, and don the apparel of the traditional “Big Man” – the “teleq säw” – in Ethiopian politics. In other words, he seemed to believe that he could bypass the EPRDF and the institutions – notably the Cabinet, the ministries and Parliament – by acting unilaterally through his own micro-structure at the pinnacle of the state.

Second, the salvo of reforms he fired off created the positive shock of which whole swathes of public opinion were dreaming. But without any adequate preparation, without anticipating their effects, and therefore without being able to control their consequences.

The most obvious overhastiness concerned the thorniest questions, like the return of formerly outlawed armed opposition groups (Oromo Liberation Front – OLF – and Berhanu Nega’s Ginbot 7) and the “normalisation” with Eritrea. The symbolism of the act, always carefully staged, seemed to matter more than the real outcome of the measure. The probable goal: to present his opponents with a fait accompli.

Genuine federalism

Third, it was the anti-TPLF (Tigrayan People’s Liberation Front) wave and the tactical alliance with ANDM (Amhara National Democratic Movement) that brought Abiy to power. This was founded on the demand for genuine federalism, and therefore for the end of domination by the Tigrayan elite (“Down Woyane!”).

But in order to capitalise on this movement, Abiy has continued to reinforce it. He has gone so far as to flirt with the political and historical rhetoric of the fiercest enemies of federalism, and therefore of the TPLF. From Ginbot 7 to those who regret the passing of the Derg, they see the introduction of federalism as the source of all the evils that, according to them, have brought Ethiopia, the great, the eternal, the unified, to its knees.

The EPRDF, the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Party, the leading coalition of the four main ethnic parties, is not just a political party. Consistently with the age-old interweaving of government and state in Ethiopia, and now even more than before, the Party is de facto in charge of the state and – beyond it – of the entire public and parapublic sector of the economy.

If a civil servant were to give a truthful answer to the question: “what is your main duty?”, he would say: “to execute the orders of the party”. The state machinery has almost no intrinsic dynamic. Only a strong EPRDF leadership with an affirmed vision can give it impetus and direction. Having held on to its hegemony for more than two decades, the TPLF has had more than enough time to become the backbone not only of the party but also of the state.

“We come in the morning in the office, stay there doing nothing, and leave in the evening only to get our salary at the end of the month… We don’t receive any guideline from the top, we don’t send any instruction to the bottom,” reports a civil servant in a rural woreda administration. “Nobody takes any decision.”

What might be called a “pen strike” is reminiscent of the uncertainties after the previous regime changes of 1974 and 1991. In addition, “the great majority of us know they will be fired or removed because they have been appointed by the party despite being unqualified for their job”.

Moreover, local administration is paralyzed not only internally but also externally. Almost everywhere, it faces an unprecedented wave of hostility because of its constant former abuses: the people deny its legitimacy to govern local affairs. One key political leader asserted: “the state has collapsed. The top-down lines of authority have vanished. There is no respect, no fear. The power vacuum is abyssal.” “We are witnessing anarchy in the country,” concluded the last EPRDF Congress (October 3-5).

“Anarchy”

The mutiny of October 10 demonstrates that “anarchy” has even reached the topmost pinnacle of the power system. The Ethiopian army claims that “it is up to the Military to maintain the stability of the nation”. It is sub-Saharan Africa’s second-largest force. Its outstanding reputation for discipline and professionalism has attracted much praise.

Nevertheless, a group of soldiers was able to plan their operation and travel undetected across the Addis suburbs to the Palace, summon the Prime Minister, Commander-in-Chief of the national armed forces under the Constitution, bargain with him and quietly leave the Palace after the PM promised “to positively consider their demands.” These elite soldiers belonged to the Agazi Commandos, named after one of the seven founders of the TPLF, killed a year into the armed struggle. The mutiny was initially presented as being motivated by grievances over pay. Abiy Ahmed has just conceded that some of the soldiers wanted to kill him. “The intention was to abort the ongoing reforms.”

In fact, day-to-day life carries on in relative peace in large parts of the country. Local wielding of authority has been spontaneously replaced by a kind of popular self-regulation. But petty crimes like theft or robbery are spreading like wildfire. Arms smuggling is skyrocketing, not to equip clandestine radical groups, but simply because ordinary people say that they need to be able to defend themselves in the absence of reliable security services.

Much worse is the wave of pogroms and “ethnic clashes”. “The number of violent events and protests have actually increased… in the 6 months since Abiy Ahmed has taken office relative to the 6 months prior… (with) an increase of over 48% in the number of reported fatalities… 954 fatalities from April to October 2018” (Armed Conflict Location and Events Dataset). Around 1.5 million people have been internally displaced since the beginning of the year, more that in Syria or Yemen in the same period.“The number of violent events and protests have actually increased… in the 6 months since Abiy Ahmed has taken office relative to the 6 months prior.”

The powerlessness or passivity of the security service and police forces is such that they failed to foresee and subsequently to stop a pogrom in a suburb of Addis Ababa which lasted no less then two and a half days and left dozens dead and thousands homeless. The random mass arrests that followed, supposed to prove that the government was ready to take the bull by the horns, was in fact an admission of impotence. The Prime Minister continues to issue martial statements warning that these acts will be met with the full force of the law, but so far to no practical avail.

Power vacuum

Almost all observers rightly point out that these outbreaks of unrest are rooted in age-old conflicts between communities, stemming from disputes over borders or land access, sometimes triggered and manipulated by local politicians eager to make their mark by playing upon and even eliciting these populist  flareups.

Many blame “forces of darkness”, a hidden but all-pervasive hand working to “sabotage” Abiy’s progress, steered by a brain naturally situated in the capital of Tigray. Up to now, however, not a single piece of concrete evidence of the existence of this network has been presented. Of course, “saboteurs” are active here and there. But the main culprit of this power vacuum is the state, beginning with the security apparatus, not through “sabotage” but through simple passivity, an attitude of “wait and see”. A state apparatus with a venerable tradition of strictly hierarchical operation has broken down for lack of a strong command post.The main culprit of this power vacuum is the state, beginning with the security apparatus… through passivity, an attitude of “wait and see.”However, a more general and more perilous dynamic is coming into play: the radicalization of ethno-nationalist identities. For the first time in interviews, some intellectuals from different ethnic groups go so far as to refer to Samuel Huntington’s “clash of civilizations”. They argue that the identities of the different ethnic regions are so irreconcilable that self-isolation is inevitable. In the past, regional identities were basically affirmative. Now they are increasingly tainted with exclusiveness, if not vengefulness and even xenophobia. 

Rule of law – how?

The last Congress shelved all major problems – i.e. all divisive issues – to prevent a split in the party. It took only two real decisions. It re-elected Abiy Ahmed as its chairman, but could it do otherwise? It united around the attempt to save the Party by focusing on a single issue: law and order. Its final resolution – no more than a dozen lines – states: “the constitutional rights of citizens have been violated in different parts of the country… This should be stopped, the rule of law respected.” The question is how?

The transitional government solution is no longer on the agenda. Some still say(e.g. Jawar Mohammed, flag bearer of the young Oromo protesters, the Queerroo) that “to save the revolution and the country”, the only way is “to prioritize and embark on negotiation and preparation for election.” A couple of months ago, this was a view also shared by the author. “This would clarify the political landscape… Each force would be required to present voters with its flagship measures… Following the elections, this landscape could be structured and hierarchized on clear and transparent foundations… (If free and fair), the outcome of the election would be unchallengeable. (Above all) this would channel protest that is both vigorous and inchoate into a concrete, tangible, decisive and commonly shared goal.”

However, in the current state of insecurity, an election could not be organized, let alone be free and fair. In the present political climate, there is maximum risk that an electoral campaign would only exacerbate hysteria and irrationality.

It would seem that the only way out is first to re-establish law and order. This cannot be done by the security forces alone, as demonstrated by the years of unrest in Oromia. Their imposition must start at the lowest level, the kebele, through the more than half a million militiamen, whose loyalty is to the kebele chairman, usually the local chair of the Party. He is the final link in the party-state’s authority. So, the party-state needs to be put back in working order, which in turn demands the emergence of a leadership that can gain credibility through a minimum of inclusivity and cohesiveness.

The very wise elder Leenco Lata has declared: “We (the political parties) disagree on a number of basic issues. We disagree on what is Ethiopia… on what kind of democracy we want… A gulf separates various positions… We have no choice but to negotiate a compromise, or else the alternative is a total breakdown of order.” Even if enough goodwill existed on all sides to reach a compromise, who would be party to it and on what basis?

Federalism and confederalism

The debate that raged in the student movements of the 60s and 70s is now definitively over. Their question was: which will prevail, the “question of nationalities” or the “class struggle”? Officially, almost nobody challenges federalism. The main rifts in Ethiopia’s politics today are about what kind of federalism it should be. Economic and social issues have been shelved. The traditional and almost universal divide between “right” and “left” has become entirely subsidiary. As a former TPLF highest body member regretted it, “all parties are not raising programmatic issues but playing with an extreme ethno nationalism”.[1]

Ginbot 7 is calling for a demarcation of the regional states on a geographical basis. But although it still has strongholds in Addis Ababa and other ethnically “mixed” cities, it would appear to be a minority voice at national level.

All the other political forces wish to maintain a federalism based on ethnic regional states, “delimited on the basis of settlement patterns, language, identity” (Constitution). But they differ on the relationship between the centre and these states. That is the main rift now. The “federalists” or “centralists” advocate strong central authority and limited autonomy for the regional states.

The “confederalists” or “decentralists” recommend a loose union of quasi-sovereign states. The intervention of the federal army to oust Abdi Iley is a case in point: justified by the “federalists” because the Somali state had fallen beneath the yoke of a corrupt autocrat, unacceptable for the “confederalists” because Addis Ababa forces can intervene in a regional state only at the request of its leadership, regardless of that leadership’s behaviour.

Autocracy and ultranationalism

This division runs right through the Oromo Democratic Party (ODP ex-OPDO). Abiy continues to hammer home his “federalist” position. But the wave of young newcomers in the leading structures appears much more radical and closer to the “confederalists”. In addition, the ODP is a head without body. The loyalty of the rank and file cadres is far from a given. If questioned about their real allegiance, most would confess proximity to the other Oromo ethno-nationalist forces, which are irrefutably “confederacies”: Dawud Ibsa’s OLF, Merera Gudina/Bekele Gerba’s OFC, Leenco Lata’s ODF and, last but not least, the Queerroo and Jawar Mohammed. The paradox is that despite having bowed to popular pressure by transferring – usually without firing – more than 20,000 local cadres, the ODP continues to be distrusted at local level, while Abiy remains an idol in Oromia.

The identity crisis of the Amhara Democratic Party (ADP, ex-ANDM) started with its birth and is deepening. It has never succeeded either in building a popular base or in appealing to the Amhara elite. In addition, it is now under heavy pressure from the new National Movement of Amhara (NaMA). This ultranationalist current capitalizes on popular resentment of the TPLF and on a widely shared aspiration for the Amhara nation to reassert its greatness after long years of constraint.

ADP is officially seeking to extend Amhara’s borders to incorporate Wilkeite and Raja. Amhara activists have gone further by claiming other chunks of land not only in Tigray but also in Afar, Benishangul and Oromia. In addition, these Amhara movements want to play a greater role in central affairs, where they see Oromo incomers as having captured too big a stake. Amhara intellectuals are joining NaMA en masse. Its membership is skyrocketing.

The tactical alliance with the ODP to oust the TPLF, imposed at the very apex – the so-called “Oromara” – was welcomed because it sidelined the TPLF. But the great majority of the rank and file members, of the population, and of the elite, is strongly opposed to any further moves in that direction. To regain lost ground, ADP is increasingly drifting towards ultranationalist and even aggressive positions.

The Southerners remain a minor partner. The overtness of their recent internal conflicts has accentuated their weakness. But they cannot be out of the game: their representatives have a voice too in the Executive and Central Committee of the EPRDF.

Thus, Abiy does not have the structured political power base commensurate with his function either in Oromia or in the EPRDF. Probably recognizing a stalemate, he is backtracking toward a more “decentralist” stance as quickly as he initially drifted toward “centralist” positions. But he remains very ambiguous. Deliberately, some suspect. In this view, his game is to remain vague about the electoral rulebook so as to hinder the competing parties in their preparations and therefore to emerge at the end as the only savior.

Concerning the central debate, he said in his opening speech to the Congress, for those able to interpret it: “a federal form of government is a preferred option in Ethiopia as long as we don’t confuse regional arrangements with ethnic identity.” But is this ambiguity sustainable? In the end, he asked the former Executive Committee of the EPRDF, either word for word or in substance, depending whom you ask: “What shall I do?”

The TPLF

The TPLF is the first to blame for the sudden and total loss of its hegemony, which it attributes to a “leadership crisis”. In fact, treating its unquestionable economic successes as conclusive evidence of the rightness of its political credo and its way of governing, it for too long refused to question either. Rejecting a genuine renewal of ideas and personnel, complacent and arrogant, it proved incapable of realizing that society had profoundly changed, that its dominance could not last and that the only way out would have been through a commitment to a soft landing from the summit to a more rational position.

Its leadership closed ranks after its 37-day meeting in late 2017 more because of the external dangers it faced than because it had managed to define a common vision. It has now announced that it will devote itself first and foremost to Tigran affairs.

This is the first reason for the revival of the TPLF’s popularity in Tigray, after years of discontent. “When we asked for something, we spoke to empty chairs,” complained one peasant.

The second is the anti-TPLF campaign, which has been counter-productive in this respect. The third is the expulsion of Tigrayans, mainly from the Amhara region, with local authorities at best turning a blind eye. The fourth is Amhara’s claims over areas that are currently part of Tigrayan territory. A short visit to the Tigrayan countryside reveals that the dominant feeling among the population is of being “under siege” because it is “surrounded by enemies,” starting with “the expansionist Amhara.” Any kind of threat from the Oromo is never mentioned.

“The TPLF is our only shield, to betray it would be like walking on the graves of our martyrs.” Of which each family has at least one. The fusion between the Front and the population is now almost total. Tigray is the only region that remains globally calm, probably the only one where the local authorities are not contested and are even respected. The entire political space is in the hands of the TPLF. It is the only party that is currently organized, almost unanimously supported, and has real political substance, whatever one might think of it.

“We shall prevail” is the watchword in Mekelle. This may seem surprising. In TPLF circles, the quiet belief is that their options are open. “We are willing to collaborate with any body who respects us. If not, we will go our own way.”

Bravado? The TPLF has always done its utmost to prepare the region for this eventuality as a last resort. At least among intellectuals, whether supporters or opponents of the Front, never has there been such a strong expression of the aspiration to build a sovereign Tigray step by step, reunifying the two sides of the border, the “Again state”, following the same path as the European nations in the 20th century.[2]

The developmental state

The TPLF leadership is deeply critical of Abiy Ahmed. They say that it was in fact the Front that initiated the reform movement in the governing structures of the EPRDF, but criticize the lack of preparation, the failure to involve all stakeholders, the haste, and even the scope of the reforms.

“We have pardoned political parties who resided abroad…unfortunately they are working so hard… and exploiting this chance to topple the government (through)  unlawful activities”, stated Debretsion during the last TPLF Congress. The “patriarch” Sebhat Nega insists: the “true political prisoners” should have been separated from the “criminals”. His opinion of the whole reform process: “not at that level and with wrong procedures”.[3]

This is a ploy, argue some observers close to the Front: if it was really reformist, why didn’t the Front prove this in Tigray itself, where it had full legal authority to take the corresponding measures?

But at least one wing of the leadership, led by Debretsion, seems willing to go beyond these critiques.

The Front has set out three conditions for a rapprochement with Abiy Ahmed. First, full respect for the constitution, i.e. for federalism. But which federalism? TPLF’s overwhelming aim now is to govern Tigray with as little external interference as possible. It therefore champions a true “confederalism”. Second, endorsement of the “developmental state”, of “democratic centralism” and of “revolutionary democracy”, i.e. an apparent refusal to move one iota from its immutable dogma. And last, the end of the anti-TPLF campaign.

Up to now, the “developmental state” has been highly centralized. An alternative would be for each region to be empowered to decide on its own state’s role in economic development. This shift from a “developmental state” to a “developmental states” strategy could certainly be endorsed by the “confederalists”.

The TPLF’s insistence on the developmental state seems to be a response to the announcement of the intention to part-privatize national treasures like EthioTelecom and Ethiopian Airlines. The modalities of this issue are not fixed and there could be room for bargaining.

Mutual self-interest

As for democratic centralism, all parties both in and outside the EPRDF are in fact bound by this doctrine, though the term democratic is something of a misnomer. This could continue. It also held true within the EPRDF until its crisis. But that crisis opened a breach that cannot be closed. From now on, the components of the Party will be able to reach a real common position only by negotiation and compromise.

The notion of revolutionary democracy is purely rhetorical, if not theological. It is a concept whose meaning nobody has ever understood. Being “neither democratic nor revolutionary,” this doctrine is a “bricolage… aiming at legitimizing the political and economical structure” put in place by the TPLF.[4]Yet it is the ideological DNA of the TPLF, which would perceive its abandonment as a negation of its identity and a denial of its contribution to Ethiopia’s trajectory since 1991. But the concept has almost no practical significance, since it can always be used to justify any zigzag.

The deal between OPDO and TPLF could be built on mutual self-interest. Among Ethiopia’s eleven administrative entities, Tigray ranks eighth in terms of poverty. Around three-quarters of the region’s budget comes from Addis Ababa. The oligarchic Tigrayan elite has built an economic empire through systemic corruption via its positions in the party-state. A very small proportion of its dubious assets are located in Tigray. Abiy Ahmed, who is certainly sitting on a mountain of dossiers on this issue, could forgive and forget to a certain extent. He could also put a curb on the ongoing purge of Tigrayans, most visible for senior positions but also occurring, though largely unnoticed, at lower levels.  In exchange, the TPLF could do much to help put the party-state machinery back in working order and, beyond it, the huge public and para-public economic sector. Tigrayans remain very present at middle-rank levels, even in the armed forces and the security services. Their expertise cannot be replaced overnight.

Rapprochement potential

Above all, a rapprochement between ODP and TPLF at a time when the tactical alliance between ODP and ADP is clearly weakening, would send a clear and public signal that a dominant force is emerging inside the EPRDF and therefore that the end may be in sight for its leadership crisis. The impact of this in remotivating the entire body of civil servants could be substantial.Above all, a rapprochement between ODP and TPLF… would send a clear and public signal that a dominant force is emerging inside the EPRDF.

But there is also a strong political rationale to such a rapprochement. ADP and NaMA have not endorsed the nostalgia for the Amhara elite’s age-old domination of Ethiopia (so-called “chauvinism”). Mainly in response to its marginalization and the stigmatization of the Amhara after 1991 as the historical “oppressors”, they gradually came to form part of a national movement (“Amarahaness”), just as the Oromo or the Tigrayans had done long before.

It may even be said that the position of the Amhara is now overwhelmingly ultranationalist, as well as “confederalist”. But with one crucial difference: “For the founders of National Movement for the Amhara (NaMA), the Amhara nation is to be defined according to the territorial criterion, not on the basis of cultural [i.e. ethnic] features.”[5] Now this “territorial criterion” is fundamentally expansionist.

As a result, both Oromo and Tigrayans again see a common threat emanating from the Amhara region. The ambition is no longer to re-impose direct subjugation, as in the past, but to extend their territory. There is a palpable fear that they could ultimately try to do this by force. This risk is taken very seriously in Tigray, and not just rhetorically. For example, a large but discreet program of military training and retooling is underway. This is not confined to Tigray: many regions are reinforcing their armed capacities, principally through their regional police.

During the last meeting of the EPRDF Executive Committee and Congress, Abiy Ahmed systematically censured criticisms of the TPLF, particularly by the ADP. He asked for attacks against the Front to end. “A political culture that discourages the past achievements of our predecessors and negate the efforts of the previous generation need to stop.”

While the TPLF was outraged at being totally excluded from the negotiations with Asmara, its chairman, Debretsion, is now in full charge of the normalization with Eritrea. Objections were raised against the concept of revolutionary democracy. Debretsion insisted that “unless you misrepresent the term ‘revolutionary’ in a negative way, revolutionary democracy stands for the peasantry.” ADP publicly rejected it.[6] In the end, the Congress agreed that the party’s ideology should remain in place. A future “study could be commissioned probing into the possibility of shifting it.”

A major decision, largely unnoticed, was to include chairs of affiliate organizations on EPRDF’s Executive Committee and five Executive Committee members from each organization on the EPRDF Council without voting rights, and to commission a study to transform the EPRDF into a national party. These affiliate organizations represent Afar, Harar, Gambella, Somali and Benishangul, 15% of the total population.

For the first time in Ethiopia’s history, these peripheral areas could in future have a real say at central level. This could heavily weight the balance of forces between “federalists” and “confederalists” in favor of the latter. These are territories that have a particularly long memory of “Amhara domination”.A race against time has begun between the escalation of all these… conflicts, and the emergence of a powerful leadership.

Four scenarios

A race against time has begun between the escalation – currently continuous – of all these ethnic, religious or land-related conflicts, or simple settling of individual or communal scores, and the emergence of a powerful leadership. Four possible scenarios may be envisaged.

1. The risk of a progressive shift toward personal power, and thus a return to authoritarianism, but softer and less archaic than before, is frequently mentioned. This risk seems slim, at least in the short term. Supposing that this were his aim, it is nevertheless hard to seen how Abiy Ahmed could build a power base of personalities loyal to him first and foremost and numerous enough to fill all key positions required for authoritarian rule.

He must rely on the EPRDF. Reciprocally, his trans-ethnic popularity means that the Front is largely relying on him for the forthcoming elections. In this balanced deal, the space for personal ascent seems narrow.

2. The rapprochement between ODP and the TPLF, reinforced by the support of some Southerners, particularly the Sidama, and by the peripheral affiliated structures, would produce a leadership capable of getting the party-state machinery running again. Opinions are divided as to whether or not this option is possible.

One objection is that the EPRDF is simply beyond repair.

The Oromo nationalist forces are now convinced that Ethiopia’s destiny is in their hands. But are they capable of shouldering the necessary historical responsibility? In other words, can they overcome their historical, cultural, religious and material divisions? The different movements, or more precisely their different leaders – Merera Gudina and Bekele Gerba, Leenco Lata, Dawud Ibsa – have their respective sub-regional strongholds, not to mention Jawar Mohammed, who reaches a much more dispersed public.

The open conflict between ODP and the OLF over the latter’s disarmament, the “alleged operatives of the OLF” behind the grenade attack at the Abiy Ahmed meeting on June 23, are some cases in point. Dawud Ibsa went so far as to openly challenge the government: “no one will disarm, and no one is able to make [us] disarm.” To further complicate things, reliable sources in Mekelle report that discussions are under way between the “Tigrayan elite”, without further detail, and OLF. Despite being the pillar of the EPRDF, therefore, OPDO is unable to capitalize on all these Oromo forces.

Last but not least: how would ADP and NaMA react if they felt that the consolidation of the links between ODP and TPLF would result in the Amhara region being squeezed between Tigray and Oromia?

3. The nightmare scenario of an intensification and exacerbation of the “ethnic clashes” obsesses everybody. However, up to now at least, they have remained localized. Could they coalesce? The memory of the civil war of the 70s and 80s haunts the middle-aged generation. Young Oromo were accused of a pogrom against Southerners in Burayu, in the outskirts of Addis Ababa. Young Southerners in Arba Minch wanted to take revenge on the local Oromo. It was the middle-aged who managed to stop them. This kind of intervention is not unusual. It could be the ultimate lifeline for avoidance of a Yugoslavian scenario. It could be the ultimate lifeline for avoidance of a Yugoslavian scenario.

4. The fourth scenario would be a continuation of the present situation, come what may, until the next elections: limited unrest, a wavering leadership, an economy still making headway despite the uncertainties. Following elections, Ethiopia would face the challenge hitherto deferred: to build a coalition of ethnic parties strong enough to govern in a probably highly fragmented political landscape.

Grand Elite Bargain

At this stage at least, the future destiny of Ethiopia is shaped through a “Grand Elite Bargain”. The structured links between the people and the political organizations in the hands of this Elite are at best loose, though the members of the spearhead popular movement, the Queerroo, are starting to register for different Oromo nationalist parties.

In its resolution, the EPRDF Congress did not even mention the forthcoming elections. Few of the opposition forces are really pressing to design the framework within which those elections will proceed. It is as if a tacit agreement has been made between the leaderships of the political organizations, whatever side they are on, to try first to reach an agreement among themselves and only then to put it before the electorate for endorsement.

Abiy Ahmed has held meetings in almost all the country’s main urban centers. He has engaged in discussion with many socio-professional categories. Opposition leaders have done the same in their strongholds. Until evidence of the contrary, it is highly symptomatic that none of them went into the rural areas.

Until evidence of the contrary, it is highly symptomatic that none of them went into the rural areas, if for no other reason than to show that they were interested in listening to a group that represents four fifths of the population.

Whatever path is chosen, however, it will be steep and tortuous, making its way up a mountain of uncertainties.

Notes

[1] October 9, 2018, interview, Addis Ababa.

[2] For its supporters, Agazian is the name of the people who founded the Geez Civilization, who invented or modified the Geez script and all the elements of Axumite civilization.

[3] Interview, Mekelle, October 6, 2018.

[4] Jean-Nicolas Bach (2011): Abyotawi democracy: neither revolutionary nor democratic, a critical review of EPRDF’s conception of revolutionary democracy in post-1991 Ethiopia, Journal of Eastern African Studies, 5:4, 641-663.

[5] Tezera Tazebew, The Idea of Amhara Identity: A Preliminary Discussion, draft communication, 20th International Conference of Ethiopian Studies, Mekelle University,  October 1-5,  2018.

[6] Idem

openDemocracy and Ethiopia Insight are pleased to be publishing the author’s pieces jointly.